Factionalism between OP Panneerselvam and Edappadi Palaniswami, the dominance of the BJP, the ruling DMK having a strong face in the form of CM Stalin, 'community and region-based politics', corruption charges against former ministers, and lack of a proper ideology are the major challenges the party is facing in the state.
With the Tamil Nadu electorate having given him an unprecedented mandate that had eluded his father the late M Karunanidhi, Stalin has to prove his worth, ensuring at the same time that the Dravidian drag on the AIADMK's side does not open up space for the BJP to make inroads in the state, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The party, which is facing the elections with allies, actor R Sarath Kumar-headed All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi and India Jananayaka Katchi of Lok Sabha MP Paarivendhar, has announced it will test its fortunes from 154 of the 234 seats, leaving the rest to its two partners.
The going is not going to be easy for the DMK and its allies in Elections 2024. Despite the seats sweepstake in the 2021 assembly polls, the vote-share difference of 5.6% (DMK's 45.38% versus AIADMK-BJP's 39.72%) is not insurmountable on a bad day, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The department of vigilance and anti-corruption in Tamil Nadu on Thursday carried out searches at over 20 premises and locations related to former All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam minister K C Veeramani, including at his native Jolarpettai in Thirupatthur district in connection with a disproportionate assets case, the police said.
'Whatever good he did, all his achievements were overshadowed by the perception of corruption and other things.'
'The BJP wants an AIADMK government so that they can implement their policies.' 'All the policies implemented in UP are being implemented in Tamil Nadu.'
Second-line AIADMK leaders and cadres alike say that by starting the talks first with the BJP and committing the party to an alliance without discussing seat-sharing, the leadership might have commenced the coalition discourse at the wrong end. According to them, even 20 seats for the BJP may be too many, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Stalin, 68, was contesting as the chief ministerial candidate for the first time during these polls. He was elected unopposed as the DMK chief in August 2018, after the death of his father, a post that Karunanidhi held for 49 years. That didn't come as a surprise to anyone, as during his lifetime, Karunanidhi, on multiple occasions made his preference for his successor abundantly clear and systematically groomed him for the job.
The anti-corruption branch of the Central Bureau of Investigation, which is currently investigating the 2G spectrum case, is also looking into allegations about the involvement of Textile Minister Dayanidhi Maran in the multi-crore scam, CBI Director Amar Pratap said. "A lot of information is coming in for this particular case and we will have to sift through the allegations and try to find out whether he (Maran) favoured any particular company or not," Singh quipped.
EPS' real test will commence with a decision whether or not to patch up with OPS and on what terms -- and then, to decide whether or not to have the BJP for an electoral ally, come 2024, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Karunanidhi was convinced that using the 2G cases against the DMK and reopening the fodder case against Lalu Prasad Yadav were products of the Congress leadership's short-sightedness. A revealing excerpt from A S Panneerselvan's Karunanidhi: A Life.
With this kind of coinage, the Opposition seems to be readily conceding the point that Modi is taller than all of them put together. So they need something bigger than themselves, collectively or not, to capture the voter imagination when it is about taking on Modi and the BJP in 2024, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Most politicians and even non-politicians have been honoured because of what they were purported to be electorally worth for the ruling party of their time, argues N Sathiya Moorthy.
By comparing I.N.D.IA. with banned terror outfits, Modi has exhibited the kind of nervousness never ever associated with him even at the height of the Gujarat riots, and certainly since his prime ministerial days, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP seems wanting to return to a 'Tamil Hindutva' agenda for elections in Tamil Nadu, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Back of the envelope calculations put government expense on each of the new schemes promised by the DMK and the AIADMK at tens of thousands of crores. But then, neither party has said how they are going to also address the mounting debt burden either, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The alliance adopted a resolution to this effect and said its theme for the elections will be "Judega Bharat, Jeetega India, (India will unite, India will win)".
The country will not allow any "unilateral action" on its border and will pay any cost to thwart such attempts, he told the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha's state conference.
Finance Minister P T R Palanivel Thiagarajan has proclaimed his determination to set Tamil Nadu's fiscal house in order in five years, and Friday will show how he plans to go about it when he rises to present the Stalin government's maiden budget, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
As opposition leaders like the Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Janata Dal-United supremo and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar expressed solidarity with Kejriwal on Saturday and renewed calls to speed up opposition unity efforts to take on the BJP, officials said the CBI may ask the AAP chief about the policy formulation process, especially of the "untraceable" file which was earlier slated to be put before the Delhi Council of Ministers.
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam General Secretary K Anbazhagan on Tuesday filed a petition before a special bench of the Karnataka high court, seeking removal of Special Public Prosecutor Bhavani Singh in the disproportionate assets case against former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and 3 others, alleging he was "sailing" with the accused.
'There are indications of two streams of money flooding the coffers of Kalaignar TV. The first was from DB Realty. The second, which is not yet publicly disclosed, allegedly involves a sum of Rs 50 crore from another participant in the purchase of 2G spectrum. Investigators are also looking at a seeming clue thrown up by the famous Radia Tapes.'
There is nothing to suggest that the DMK stands to gain from the AIADMK split nor is there anything indicative of an extraordinary advantage for the BJP, independently or in the company of the AIADMK, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi to dig up the perceived past of the DMK rival, now under a new leader in M K Stalin, may not gel with the voters, both old and new. If they are still going to vote for the AIADMK-BJP combine, it will be for entirely different reasons, and despite Modi's poll speeches, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Expelled All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazahagm leader VK Sasikala on Tuesday arrived in Chennai, 23 hours after her departure from Bengaluru, where she had served a four year jail term in a corruption case and also underwent treatment for COVID-19.
As leaders go, while Modi's visits to the state will be watched with curiosity, Rahul will need to be dislodged from the popular consciousness -- Tamil Nadu is one state where he's present, notes Aditi Phadnis.
'There will be significant political traction for him. But how much, we don't know yet'
The prime minister pointed out that such infamous incidents occurred during the Congress rule.
Stalin owes his victory this time, like in 2019, to the hate-campaign of the local Hindutva forces, which kept haranguing him, and even his dead father, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
From Chief Minister EK Palaniswami to Seeman to TTV Dhinakaran to elder brother M K Azhagiri, everyone's favourite target these days seems to the DMK chief Stalin, which is good news in an election year, but that doesn't mean he is going to sweep the polls, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Sibal, a prominent Opposition voice and a former Congress leader, also said that instead of a common minimum programme, the Opposition parties should talk about a 'new vision for India'.
After Rahul's Bharat Jodo Yatra began criss-crossing the Hindi heartland, BJP leaders have revived their attacks on 'dynasty politics' and 'family rule' in the Congress, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
A close analysis of the Tamil Nadu assembly election results shows that there is no marked difference in the voting pattern.
'They plan to purchase votes.' 'We will not purchase people, but win the elections.' 'In our manifesto there are no free gifts. It says what we will do for the people.'
The inaugural Sangamam turned out to be a political Hindutva function than a gathering on the Hindu religion, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Congress leader threatened to give a "fitting lesson" in the ensuing elections. "People are watching the excesses of this government," he said.
For a party that has adopted the successful social re-engineering model from Gujarat, Rajasthan and across the rest of the 'Hindi belt' over the past decades, Tamil Nadu continues to remain a tricky customer, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Unlike the regimes of Jayalalitha, Palaniswami and Karunanidhi, ministers are actually getting to make decisions on their own, with the unmentioned rider that they would be held responsible and accountable, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The last four years was not Dravidian rule, it was BJP rule by proxy.'
